Sunday 18 September 2011

Notes on Peak Oil

New York oil closed nearing to $90.21 on September 12, 2011. This is reportedly the highest possible since early August this year. The EIA’s report revealing larger than imagined US oil stockpiles brought the prices down to $88.91 the next day. London trading of Brent was however rather stable at around $112 per barrel in this week of September.
The US crude oil stocks declined by 6.7 million barrels as per the EIA reports. However traders largely see this as a result of the storms, bringing down oil production in the Gulf considerably. The gasoline sales in the US (dropped by 8.8 barrels a day) have raised considerable concerns as well. The oil markets are largely controlled by the twists in the EU and its associated debts. The future of EU’s monetary position, along with the possibility of a default in the Greek bank, is the primary concern this week.
IEA’s review on the oil demand forecast is mainly attributed to the worsening of the economic outlook at large. The outgrowing of demand to supply remains a chief concern for the IEA it though seems to be better than what was experienced in 2010. The year 2010 ran a 1.4 million barrel a day’s increase in demand against production. This initiated the agency to arrange for a release of oil stockpiles, to combat rising prices.
The continued rise in global demand might still lead to a supply deficit in the coming year too as foreseen by the agency. The Libyan oil production rate for the export market remains an unknown factor that might alter the face of global oil demand. The Libyan officials in charge of oil production say that 160,000 barrels a day of oil are being pumped, amounting to only a 10% of what Libya used to produce before the insurgency.
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